[62] Lewis, Dr. F. J., before the s.p.a.ce Flight Symposium, San Antonio, Tex., May 28, 1960.

[63] Kleitman, Prof. Nathaniel, before the s.p.a.ce Flight Symposium, San Antonio, Tex., May 26, 1960.

[64] Taylor, Lt. Col. Richard R., USA (MC), testimony before the House Committee on Science and Astronautics, June 15, 1960.

[65] Lederberg, Joshua, "Exobiology-Experimental Approaches to Life Beyond Earth," Science in s.p.a.ce, ch. IX, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., February 1960.

[66] Ibid.

[67] Dryden, Dr. Hugh L., speech before the Engineering Society of Cincinnati, Feb. 18, 1960.

[68] Michael, Donald N., "s.p.a.ce Exploration and the Values of Man,"

s.p.a.ce Journal, September 1959, p. 15.

[69] 67 supra.

[70] s.p.a.ce Age, August 1959, p. 3.

[71] Minneapolis-Honeywell, Military Products Group.

V. LONG-RANGE VALUES

In a.s.sessing the _practical_ values of s.p.a.ce exploration it does not seem logical to limit considerations to those values which are immediate or near-future ones. The worth of a present activity may be doubled or trebled because of its long-range potential.

Such values may not be practical within the context of today"s usage, but they may be extremely practical if we are willing to concede that those of us living today have an interest in and a responsibility for what happens on Earth in the decades and centuries to come.

TROUBLE SPOTS

Thinking along these lines it is not difficult to conjure up a picture of some of the difficult physical and social problems which will be facing the Earth in the years which stretch ahead. The foregoing sections of this report, for example, have already indicated extensive difficulties inherent in at least five major categories.

(1) Bursting population.

(2) Acute water shortage.

(3) Soil erosion and disappearance.

(4) Too much leisure.

(5) Intensified nationalism.

In each area it is probable that s.p.a.ce exploration will ultimately play an important role.

_Population_

Social scientists have been warning for years of the drastic social upheavals which must inevitably accompany an "exploding" population. It is a problem the complexity of which grows in geometric progression as time goes on. In the United States nearly 300 years were required to produce 90 million people. In the past 60 years this number has doubled.

The implications are obvious. They are only too plain to urban and suburban planners who endeavor to cope with the antlike construction and activity of the human race as it burgeons with each succeeding year.

Of course, this is not a domestic matter but a global one. Its seriousness has been described as follows: "Projection of the post-World War II rate of increase gives a population of 50 billions (the highest estimate of the population-carrying capacity of the globe ever calculated by a responsible scholar) in less than 200 years."[72] A European professor of medicine adds that any surge in human longevity at this time is quite undesirable from the standpoint of making elderly persons useful or cared for. "The problems posed by the explosive growth of populations * * * are so great that it is quite rea.s.suring to know that biologists and medical men have so far been unsuccessful in increasing the _maximum_ lifespan of the human species * * * and * * *

it would be a calamity for the social and economic structure of a country if the mean lifespan were suddenly to increase from 65 to 85 years."[73]

Some anthropologists pessimistically wonder if man is going to prove like the locust by populating himself into near extinction from time to time.

Without subscribing to this view, one must nevertheless take notice of the difficulties posed by population increase, not merely those of food, shelter, education, and the like but also those resulting from cellular, cramped, close living.

Whichever phase of the problem is studied, it seems not unreasonable to conclude that s.p.a.ce research will help find a solution. New ways to produce food, new materials for better shelter, new stimuli for education--all of these are coming from our s.p.a.ce program. As for the matter of adequate living room, s.p.a.ce research may result in ways to permit an easy and efficient scattering of the population without hurting its mobility. This might result from the development of small subsidiary types of craft, or "gocarts," originally designed for local exploration on other planets. Such craft, whether they operated by air cushion, nuclear energy, gravitational force, power cell, or whatever, conceivably would permit Earth"s population to spread out without the need for expensive new roads--which, by the way, take millions of acres of land out of productive use.

A development of this sort, together with new power sources to replace the fossil fuels on which factory, home, and vehicle now depend, might also all but eliminate the growing smog and air-pollution blight.

_Water shortage_

A direct result of the population increase, multiplied by the many new uses for which water is being used in home appliances, etc., and plus the greatly increased demand for standard uses such as indoor plumbing, irrigation, and factory processing, is the likelihood that water shortage will be high on the list of future problems. Ways to conserve and reuse water, together with economical desalting of sea water, will be essential in the decades ahead. s.p.a.ce research may provide part of the answer here, too. (See New Water Sources and Uses, sec. III.)

_Soil erosion_

The Russian steppes of Kazakhstan are providing the world with a great contemporary dust bowl, reminiscent of the middle 1930"s when dust from the Great Plains stretched from Texas to Saskatchewan. Questionable agriculture policies, drought, and strong easterly winds are among the forces blamed for the trials of southern Russia.[74] So great is the extent of this disturbance that the dust cloud has been identified in photographs taken by American weather satellites.

Of course, "wind erosion is only one of the processes whereby the Earth"s arable land is diminishing and the deserts increasing; erosion by water can also sweep away the soil."[75] But insofar as the current dust bowl of the Soviet steppes has "diminished food resources at a time when the number of mouths to feed is increasing so rapidly, the world is the poorer."[76]

What can s.p.a.ce research do about this vital trend, which again seems destined to accelerate in the future?

While we cannot be sure, we can conjecture that improved soil conservation might turn out to be the greatest benefit of weather understanding and modification. Agriculture policies might be adapted to the long-range patterns uncovered by weather satellites and, eventually, through better understanding of the making of weather, it may be possible to modify weather forces in a manner which will preserve the soil.

In a more remote vein, it may be that knowledge gained from a first-hand study of the Moon or other planets in the solar system will eventually contribute to the conservation of soil on Earth in ways as yet unimagined.

_Added leisure_

Acquiring more time for leisure sounds good. Very much more leisure than most people now have, however, is apt to present trouble in itself.

Since it appears that the time is not far away when those living in the highly developed countries will no longer have to concentrate their prime energies on the traditional quest for food, clothing, and shelter, a potentially dangerous vacuum may be the result. At least the psychologists seem agreed that people must feel a useful purpose in their lives and have ways to pursue it.

Above all, leisure makes a challenge to the human spirit. Athens, in her Golden Age, displayed a genius for the creative use of leisure which can be seen as complementary, and indeed superior, to her genius for military and commercial ventures. There have also been such periods of all-pervasive inspiration in the history of other peoples * * *. The doubling of our standard of living will present a growing challenge to the human spirit and produce graver consequences, should we fail to meet it. We neglect the proper use of leisure at our peril.[77]

In other words, the answer to the problem does not lie solely with the golf course, the yacht club, the theater, or the lengthened vacation.

Much more will be required.

The intellectual stimulus of s.p.a.ce exploration and research, which undoubtedly will divide into numerous branches like capillary streaks from a bolt of lightning, should be markedly useful in helping to fill this vacuum. s.p.a.ce research would seem particularly applicable in this role since it deals with fundamental knowledge and concepts which are satisfying in terms of psychological needs and sense of purpose.

_Intensified nationalism_

Ever since World War II the era of colonialism has been on the wane.

Many nations have proclaimed, won, or wrested their independence during that period. Others appear to be on the verge of doing so. At any rate, it is clear that in the decades ahead the world is going to see the rise of even more independent nations with strong nationalistic feelings.

History implies that developments of this sort are often accompanied by international unrest--because of the normal ebullience of national adolescence and the desire to be accepted by the world community, as well as a variety of concomitant political and economical upheavals.

For whatever trials may lie ahead on this score, s.p.a.ce exploration may prove to be much needed oil on rough water.